AAA projects the number of Americans traveling on vacation this Independence Day holiday weekend will decrease 1.9 percent from 2008 with approximately 37.1 million travelers taking a trip of 50 or more miles away from home. That means about 12.2 percent of the total population will travel over this holiday period. Last year, 37.8 million Americans traveled during the same period; a 10.5 percent decline from the 42.3 million travelers who vacationed in 2007.

In the Pacific Northwest, 5.9 million travelers or 12.1 percent of the population are expected to hit the road for the holiday weekend, a decline of 2.5 percent from last year.

“Continued economic uncertainty and rising fuel prices will make some travelers limit or cut short their holiday plans,” said AAA Oregon Public Affairs Director Marie Dodds. “Many Americans are concerned about their personal finances so these attitudes are reflected in the slight travel decline we’re forecasting for the Independence Day travel period.”

At the same time, those who choose to vacation will find bargains.

“This summer, travelers can find great deals from discounts to special offers, resulting in some outstanding vacation values. If you have a little money socked away for travel, this summer is a perfect time to go,” said Doreen Loofburrow, director of travel for AAA Oregon-Idaho.

Air travel to increase while auto travel dips, but most travelers will still go by car

The July 4 holiday is typically the busiest time of year for auto travel since nearly all school-aged children are out of school at this time and parents are more apt to take family vacations. Auto travel is the dominant mode of transportation, accounting for 88 percent or 32.6 million travelers. That’s a decline of 2.6 percent from the 33.4 million auto travelers in 2008. In all, about 10.7 percent of the population will travel by auto.

In the Pacific Northwest, 4.9 million travelers or 9.9 percent of the population will go by car, which is a drop of 3.1 percent from 2008.

Fuel prices are lower than a year ago. Oregon’s average for regular unleaded is $2.81 and the national average is $2.68. A year ago, both averages were already more than $4 per gallon. But the relatively steep price increase of about 30 cents a gallon since Memorial Day will dampen consumer enthusiasm for road trips.

While most people will travel by car, air travel is expected to increase, thanks in part to lower airfares this year. Air travel will account for 5 percent of July 4 leisure travel with about two million person trips by air over the July 4 holiday period. That’s an increase of 4.9 percent over last year. This modest increase follows a whopping decline of 37.4 percent in 2008. Dodds said, “Last July 4, air travel declined steeply, so this year’s rebound is significant. We’re seeing some pent up demand from folks who haven’t taken a vacation by air in some time.”

Not surprisingly, the regions with the farthest travel are the most dependent on air travel. The Mountain and Pacific regions have the highest share of the population traveling by air. In the Pacific Northwest, half a million people or 1 percent of the population will fly to their Independence Day destination, a 2.1 increase over last year.

Trips by other/multi modes, including air/auto combinations, rail, buses and watercraft, will be the dominant means of travel used by an estimated 2.5 million Americans, or 7 percent of all travelers.

Average spending will be $1,160 and average distance traveled will be 614 miles

Fourth of July travelers expect to spend approximately $1,160 per household this upcoming holiday weekend. Transportation and accommodations will account for about half of trip spending, while food and beverage absorbs another 20 percent of the holiday budget. Shopping, entertainment and recreation will account for the remaining 30 percent of spending on average.

Travelers in the Pacific Northwest are expected to spend $1,163.

Independence Day travelers will log an average of 614 miles roundtrip this upcoming holiday weekend. More than one third (38%) of travelers will stay relatively close to home, with expected round trips of less than 250 miles. One third of weekend travelers will log between 250 and 700 miles. And 28 percent will travel more than 700 miles round trip.

Like many holidays, the Fourth of July is a very family-oriented occasion. Nearly two-thirds of travelers mention visiting with friends and relatives as one of their expected activities for the holiday weekend. Dining and shopping come in at a close second and third in terms of popular activities with 56 percent and 49 percent of respondents indicating that they would participate in these activities during their holiday.

Airfare and lodging costs will be lower

According to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index - a monitor of pricing in 20 popular cities across the U.S. for hotel and car rentals, as well as 40 pairs of cities for air travel pricing - the lowest average published airfares over the July 4 holiday weekend are expected to decrease 16 percent from last year as air passengers will pay as little as $169.

Car rental rates are up slightly with consumers paying an average of $51 per day compared to $49 a year ago, an increase of five percent.

Hotel rates for AAA Three Diamond and Two Diamond lodgings are expected to be 12 percent less than last year with travelers spending an average of $137 per night for Three Diamond properties. Travelers planning to stay at AAA Two Diamond hotels will pay an average of $101 per night.

“Smart travelers are discovering that 2009 is the year to take advantage of travel bargains. Costs to visit many destinations are 20 to 70 percent lower than normal,” Loofburrow adds. “From Hawaii to Disney vacations to cruises, rates are at the lowest we’ve seen in years.”

Holiday Forecast Approach

AAA’s projections are based on research conducted by IHS Global Insight. The Boston-based economic research and consulting firm teamed with AAA earlier this year as part of an agreement to jointly analyze travel trends during the major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades. The complete AAA / IHS Global Insight 2009 July 4th holiday forecast can be found at AAA.com/news.

Those traveling by car this Independence Day can estimate the fuel cost of their trip by using AAA’s www.fuelcostcalculator.com. Also, by utilizing AAA’s Fuel Price Finder (http://aaa.opisnet.com/index.aspx),

travelers can access the locations and prices for more than 100,000 gas stations across the country in order to find cheapest fuel along their route. Travelers looking assistance with their holiday trip planning can access AAA’s Internet TripTik routings and TourBook guides by going to www.AAA.com.